9th District- Marcy Kaptur over Rich Iott- 60-39%
-it's a shame that the 9th is saddled with two very flawed candidates. At least, Marcy won't be sitting next to the gavel anymore.

5th District- Bob Latta over Caleb Finkenbiner and Brian Smith 63-35-2%
-no surprise here.

Governor- John Kasich over Ted Strickland
-this surprises me. First off, I didn't think Strickland was doing that bad of a job, he's a moderate, and I thought that he'd have no problem with re-election. I will say this, with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio flipping to Republican governors and Mitch Daniels entrenched in Indiana, I wonder if this could be a problem for Obama in 2012 seeing as he won all four states in 2008.

Senate- Rob Portman over Lee Fisher
-Portman's run a good campaign. Lee Fisher is just a bad candidate, period.

U.S. House: Republicans pick up 59 seats and take control of the House.

U.S. Senate: Republicans pick up 7 seats- Democrats retain control (52-48) but will need a new Majority Leader. The Senate could get very interesting if the Republicans pick up 8 or 9 seats because it could put Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and possibly Ben Nelson of Nebraska into play to switch sides.

No votes yet

I see the Republicans gaining 8 in the Senate, but Lieberman getting co-opted to continue to play nice with the Democrats. Othewrise, I agree with your prognostication, though I would not be surprised to see Iott's numbers a bit lower after his recent PR struggles, perhaps 62-37 or so. Agreed that the Dems pretty much handed the Senate seat to Portman by running the career political hack Fisher, and I originally thought Strickland would squeak out a victory, given his penchant for avoiding political controversy, but anti-incumbency / anti-status quo / anti-government sentiments seem to be stronger this year than I thought they would be in January.

I think the House will be 50-55 seats gained by the GOP, which is still enough for a significant majority, sending the U.S. into two years of legislative gridlock (that is not always a bad outcome, BTW).

I think both of your predictions are realistic. I do see Republicans winning over 60 seats and if they flip enough lean D seats due to the enthusiasm gap it will easily cross the 70 threashold.

I do think Latta and Kaptur both win by a larger margin (both receiving 65-66%).

I'm more inclined to think 7 Senate seats will be the pick up but again the enthusiasm gap is a factor. WV I think will be red which really surprised me. CA stays blue. WA could go either way. NV goes red. If the Repubs get 8 or more then I think Lieberman and Nelson will begin voting more on the GOP side, maybe not for the Majority Leader, but definitely when it comes to many top issues. Again I agree with HM, gridlock is not a bad thing. Fortunate for my side of the aisle we can afford to stall the debate on most issues.

I predict the Bush tax cuts will get extended for everyone and the lameduck session will try to pass a budget and fail.


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