Is Trump Going Independent ? I Say Yes.

It's interesting that Trump has decided to broadcast his own venue instead of participating in the next debate. In my opinion, this move will doom his campaign because this clearly shows what type of incompetent POTUS he would be. So I say, Mr. Trump, take your ball and go home. He must have heard me because that is exactly what he is doing.

No votes yet

been considered better politically for those who are running close or behind in a race to WANT debates, and to participate in debates WITH the front-runner so that the trailing person(s) get(s) maximum exposure. On the other hand, when a candidate is WAY ahead, as The Donald is in most polls, HE becomes the audience draw. HE has little to gain, because he's already SO FAR AHEAD! From that perspective, The Donald is doing the rational thing by NOT showing up for the debate. How much lower will the audience be without The Donald there? IMHO...significantly lower.

On the other hand, it could be interpreted as The Donald being fearful of answering Megyn Kelly's probing questions. If that is true, do most Americans really want a POTUS who has openly expressed admiration for Putin and Kim Jong-un, and fears Megyn Kelly? It seems that the Fox Network believes that The Donald fears facing Kelly again. Here's a link that includes the Fox response to The Donald's refusing to appear on the Fox-directed debate: https://www.yahoo.com/celebrity/news/fox-news-responds-donald-trump-deba...

The weirdest thing to me is that Megyn Kelly is relatively young and attractive. Under different circumstances, she might be in line to be The Donald's wife #4! (Sarah's just too old for this role.) Oh, wait! The Donald does not really want a wife who challenges him too much intellectually or ideologically! Strong, intelligent women are a big turnoff for The Donald!

Anyone else notice how drawn and tired Megyn looked last night? This little spat is taking a toll on her, IMHGO!! Her complexion is faded, and her hair looked brushed, not shampooed. Her eyes looked like she was under a lot of turmoil, too.

Trump drives the ratings at Fox FAR more than Kelly does. I would like him to show up personally, but this move isn't going to hurt him. After all, Hillary already skips situations where she has nothing to gain.

I feel Trump is only committed to the Trump Party, not the GOP. He is behaving like an independent, so let him run as an independent. He has a right as an American to exercise his right to free speech. He doesn't seem to understand there may be consequences. Such lack of judgement on his part could be interpreted as having a childlike personality. We have to ask ourselves, do we want our four year old trying to fire his cabinet on a daily bases and trying to dismiss our legislators because they don't agree with him? Worst yet, do we want our four year old in the launch center? Lastly, the GOP should pray that their candidate for POTUS is not Trump or Cruz. If I voted for a Republican candidate for POTUS it would be Kasich.

the Republican nomination. That could change, of course. It's still early in the process. But, if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he will NOT turn it down to run as an independent!

Now, should someone, anyone, come from behind to pass Trump in Republican delegates, because of his gigantic ego, which some might define as narcissism, he may well run as an independent. But, he's winning the Republican nomination now, so why would he?

The way I see things, regardless if Trump runs as the Republican nominee, he is already running as an independent. It's obvious that he is anti-Republican and anti-Democrat. The only rules he plays by are Trump rules. That's not called leadership, it's called bullying. I watched a documentary last night about Hitler. The similarities are terrifying.

If he's running as an Independent endorsed by the GOP that's just better for the GOP.

I agree with your description of Trumps leadership which is exactly why he won't get my vote. It's funny because it's the same as Obama's leadership.

The problem with your analysis is if Bloomberg jumps into the race which he may do if it's a Trump/Hilary contest. IF that happens the Dems lose their electoral college firewall and the likelihood of ANY candidate reaching 271 is unlikely thus allowing the House of Representatives to choose the President.

MikeyA

Not a bad choice, might I add.

Trump has another advantage here-money. But I don't mean regular money. I recently heard a new term for it---"Fuck You Money" ! And he is now showing folks how to use it!

Haven't the deadlines to get on most state ballots as an independent already passed?

most, the deadlines for filing for the primary elections have long passed. However, I do believe that the deadlines for filing as an "independent" in the General Election are yet to have been reached. This was many years ago, but in 1980 John Anderson filed to run as an "independent" candidate for POTUS after losing the Republican nomination to Reagan. And Anderson qualified for all 51 ballots (including Washington, D.C.) in 1980. I looked it up: http://ballot-access.org/2011/05/30/history-of-john-b-andersons-1980-ind...
Even in those states where ballot access for the General Election had technically passed, Anderson filed lawsuits to gain access and won every time. That would create a precedent for others to follow in 2016, if anyone so chooses.

Good homework Dale. Nice use of your education for a change. Now we need to work on your analytic skills.

about how you and I differ about our analyses. I do appreciate it when opinions and analyses are researched and have a factual basis.

Trump is a loser. The momentum is set. He is headed for the toilet.

surge was not predicted by ANY of the polls.
Just shows, with so many candidates, polls mean little.

And what happened to J
O
H
N
?
Going
Down
Badly
!

Polls in the caucuses are always difficult because of the rules of caucuses. It's a big reason why people want caucuses removed. For instance Bernie might want a recount but that would be incredibly difficult to do.

Also polls in these early states are affected by voter entitlement. I have no doubt Trump hurt himself by not doing the debate. Both Iowa and NH voters view it as their birthright to help choose the candidates. By not speaking to them they view Trump as directly insulting them. It was a big strategy mistake.

I'm interested most in seeing if anyone else drops out before next week.

MikeyA

MikeyA, 100%. You said Trump would win and he didn't. You have been wrong 100% of the time and you still have a perfect score.

Let me show you my quote

"As polling stands right now Trump will win the nomination. He'd win Iowa then NH and he leads in SC and FL. Those four wins will be enough to get enough momentum to win outright. Impressive being he hasn't really spent any money thus far. Carson and Jeb are spending a lot."

Notice how it starts, as polling stands right now. Did polling stand? No it didn't. Now I also stated that as long as Trump's aggregate polling remains over 30pts with a crowded field he will be the nominee. You seem to view both as predictions. They're not. They are analysis of the current polls. Notice I always say "if current trends hold". That means I'm only making a judgement within those parameters.

I also stated I believed Trump would beat Carson. At the time Carson was running number two. Yet... again... I added the caveat that that would remain as long as Carson wouldn't be in the lead for any state. Trump beat Carson but I'm not saying "Yay I was right" because the parameters changed significantly. I think Carson will try to stay to SC but it's unlikely, as he'll be short on money.

What you don't understand is the primary isn't about vote totals or even winning each state. It's about momentum. That's why Rubio's stock jumped last night. Rubio appeals to a different group than Trump and Cruz. Hence he now is a breakout from the rest of the pack. In a three way race between Trump/Cruz/Rubio going forward Rubio would win. BUT for this to happen it has to be a three way race. If Rubio doesn't distance himself from Kasich, Christie, and Bush it won't be a three way race. If he does improve next week his path will be to win NV, Win FL (if bush drops out, if not then 2nd), and secure the most winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday.

So, if Trump wins NH (I will wait to see post-IA polls to see if he's hurt) and if Bush doesn't drop out then I still believe Trump will have the easiest path. At this point I think Cruz will win the evangelicals in SC but it will be very close.

So the biggest impact on the race right now is how much support will Rubio get in NH and when will Bush drop out?

MikeyA

I'd like to comment on Dales' posts tonight. I AGREE with about 98% of what he's said. Now, as far as skipping debates goes, Ex-Detriot mayor Colman Young made a science out it. Once he had a lock on his constituents, and all the scandals began, he began cutting out debates, and when he was interviewed, he swore so much the interviews were unprintable. He never lost another election, either. I have no idea how Trump will/will not be affected by his decision. Running 3'd party, isn't going to happen, IMHO. So far, Trump has done something I never saw coming--he is putting serious cracks in the liberals' PC weapon. He is NOT kow-tow--ing to the liberals favorite method of cutting off debates, and he's not offering the sniveling apologies all other White politicians come up with regarding something trivial and sometimes quite laughable.

2 primaries down and only now is the media taking notice of what I noted from polls months ago.

Hilary Clinton has a problem among women. This is a great reminder that in the world of polling the like-ability numbers matter especially the more extreme the numbers. Where I was shocked was how soon and how drastic this has come.

As this nomination progresses I am becoming more convinced that Trump will be the nominee and I am getting less convinced Hilary will be.

Despite the talking heads I don't think either convention would be brokered unless someone new jumps in on either side. (Biden is a very slim possibility of this but I doubt it)

If this ends up a race between Trump and Sanders I believe Bloomberg will run as an independent as a one issue candidate of Gun Control. If that happens look for a GOP electoral vote landslide as Bloomberg would break up the Dem "firewall". It's also possible that in this scenario Bloomberg takes Florida denying Trump 270 and thus the fate of the Presidency will be decided in the US House.

MikeyA

I bet Huma votes for her.

Who or what is Huma?

Huma is married(I think)still, to the little pervert who got kicked out of the House of Representatives for sending "selfies" of his cock and balls to various women all across the Net. Research Rep. Anthony Weiner,(DEMOCRAT). Enjoy!

Huma is Hilary's assistant and also is married to Anthony Weiner.

MikeyA

TY, Mikey.

Politics

Trump Threatens Independent Run If RNC Doesn’t Condemn Cruz’s Attacks
ThinkProgress 23 hours ago .
 Like
 Reblog on Tumblr
 Tweet
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds his pledge during a news conference, at Trump Tower in New York, Thursday, Sept. 3, 2015. Trump ruled out the prospect of a third-party White House bid and vowed to support the Republican Party's nominee, whoever it may be. Donald Trump is again hinting at a possible independent run for president if the Republican National Committee (RNC) doesn’t condemn Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) for his recent barrage of political attacks against the billionaire. On Monday, Trump said that the RNC would be “in default of their pledge to me” if they don’t rebuke Cruz for his attacks, which include a recent ad stating Trump would appoint Supreme Court justices who would erase the Second Amendment. ...

ThinkProgress is not a credible source especially for GOP news. Trump is just doing it for the headlines. If anyone is likely to jump in the race as an Indy it's Bloomberg.

Now if Bloomberg gets in and Trump loses the nomination and isn't offered VP only then can I see him running as an Indy making it a 4 way race.

MikeyA

According to you, MikeyA any information anybody else provides but you isn't credible. Even though Trump calls himself a Republican, he's already gone independent.

Untrue. Dale frequently posts credible sources. Think Progress is a biased source.

MikeyA

We'll see how biased it is when Trump doesn't get the nomination and then destroys the Republican Party.

is wishful thinking by Democratic partisans at this point in the game. The better bet is that Trump gets the Republican nod. And if Hillary loses out to Bernie, Bloomberg runs as an independent, and we end up with President Trump.

You shouldn't trust clearly left wing sources about what is happening on the right wing of politics.

Maybe Trump won't win the GOP nomination. One thing is clear right now he is winning the GOP nomination. When he wins it will you admit your bias and the bias of your sources? Here's an actual prediction from me: you won't, because you're not man enough to admit when you are wrong.

MikeyA

someone in a public place and still win these Republican primaries and caucuses! "When you're rich, they think you really know," [from "Fiddler on the Roof."]

You gotta love how the media is talking about Hillary's "big win" in Nevada. Remember when she was 20 points ahead just a few weeks ago? Now a 52-48 margin is "big!" I guess we all know which Democratic candidate the media prefers!

Keep in mind, The Donald is the most media savvy candidate for POTUS since Ronnie, and we all know how well Ronnie did! Remember when a mic was open and Ronnie said on a test of the equipment something like, "The nuclear missiles are on the way to the Soviet Union as I speak," in jest, but it was picked up and broadcast? How much did that hurt Ronnie? NOT AT ALL! In fact, it may have enhanced his image in the minds and the hearts of the American public...not just with Republicans. Most Americans love tough talk. Don't underestimate The Donald's appeal to many Democrats and Independents who often vote for Democrats. President Trump...how does that sound to ya'?

It was a big win IMO. Mainly because it stops Bernie's win streak. The nomination is about building coalitions and keeping momentum. Now she will walk in and win SC. Then she goes into Super Tuesday with two straight and she will win most of the states on Super Tuesday. She could wrap it up that night due to her Super Delegate count. I don't think she will but she will be so far ahead Bernie won't be able to win.

Same on the GOP side. That was a huge win for Donald. If Cruz or Rubio can't get it close in Nevada then it's over. Donald's firewall isn't as big as Hilary's on Super Tuesday so the GOP will go on longer but he will still look like the eventual nominee and you'll see his wins inch into the clear winner category.

It will be Hilary v Trump barring a surprise, change in the polls, or complete meltdown by one of them.

Dems NEED to start getting concerned about the lack of enthusiasm. Hilary is losing women and independents. Without rock star enthusiasm Trump will win an electoral landslide. She needs to do something to excite the base.

MikeyA

I predict Trump will not have enough to get the GOP nomination and therefore a compromise candidate will emerge. Trump will then run for POTUS as an independent.

Unlike Hillary, who squeaked by in Nevada, The Donald was well ahead of both Ted and Mario in South Carolina. Now, The Donald has yet to approach 50% of the votes, but South Carolina was a winner-take-all race, and guess who gets all of the Republican delegates from South Carolina? Talk about momentum!
And I have seen no evidence that, as the Republican field thins out, the vast majority of the followers of those who have dropped out go to Mario or Ted instead of The Donald. The Donald will continue to pick up a significant share of the Republican votes, no matter what he says or does, because he is anything but boring, and Americans like the spectacular, no matter what. Just look at the popularity of the so-called "reality" TV shows, including The Donald's, "The Apprentice!"

And, Democrats, don't count The Donald out in the General Election either. He appeals to the disaffected white constituents in a way no other Republican candidate does, with his Archie Bunkeresque attacks on minorities, which even many minorities see as just The Donald being The Donald, and he's really not a racist. In short, to use his own terms, The Donald is HUGE!!

Actually SC is not a winner take all state. But that only adds to how impressive Trump's victory is. They give a majority of delegates to the statewide winner and then the rest go to the winners of each congressional district much like how Maine and Nebraska break up their electoral college votes.

Donald's rise IMO is a smug of a rejection of politically correct language as it is an acceptance of any of his stances.

MikeyA

in Republican primaries is every state. It is fascinating that someone who receives less than 40% of the total vote walks away with virtually every delegate to the national nominating convention.

Yeah it's confusing. If one wins the whole state it's likely they will win all CDs. I have seen people refer to SC as a winner-take-all for that reason.

MikeyA

She could excite her base best by saying "I didn't do it" when she gets indicted!

The so-called expects are saying that the GOP nominee will be selected after a nasty fight on the convention floor. I find both the DNC and the GOP confusing. They each have a candidate that is not philosophically part of their party. Sanders is an admitted Socialist and Trump displays behavior of a Fascist.

many white Americans, especially white male Americans, often say to their friends in private, but most would not dare to say in public. A large number of white male Americans feel entitled. They feel that their entitlement is threatened by recent immigrants and by minorities whose families may have been in America longer than the white families of those who feel entitled!
Common sense means nothing to them. They care not that the overwhelming majority of Muslims fleeing the Middle East are victims fleeing terrorism. They care not that the overwhelming majority of Hispanics who come to America are law-abiding. They care not that the overwhelming majority of recent immigrants are working at jobs most other Americans do not want to do. They care not that many minorities overcome obstacles unique to their being a minority, and become extremely successful -- like Ben Carson!

Why does America have an immigration problem? Despite what The Donald's campaign implies, America was great, is great, and will be great no matter which person is elected our next POTUS.
America is, -- simply -- the greatest country in the history of the world! That's why people from all over the world want to come here! Duh!

There are cases where what you're saying is correct. We all know that guy who posts shit like that on Facebook. But I also know some deeply religious people who I've never heard a an ill word leave their mouth about anyone different from them. They are flocking to him for two reasons. They feel politically correct is a threat to the safety of the country. They also see Trump as a strong leader.

MikeyA

People listened to Hitler because they thought he was a strong leader. Here is something we should think about. Notice how Trump uses many flowery adjectives to describe potential voters and their home states. This ingratiating behavior is characteristic of con men. Trump is attacking his political opponents at his point. If he becomes POTUS he'll try to attack the people and our democracy. Also, look at his facial expressions and eyes. He has the demeanor of a crazy man. Another question I have is this. If he becomes POTUS would we have a KBG agent living in the White House?

And The Donald ALWAYS wants to win, because he is so egomaniacal. I don't think he really understands the job of POTUS. He erroneously equates his experience as a big businessman, running a multi-billion dollar business, with heading a multi-trillion dollar government. It just is not the same in too many ways.
As a businessman, The Donald acted like a dictator. He made decisions, and expected his decisions to be carried out properly, or someone got fired. As POTUS, one is limited in power because the government is divided into three co-equal branches. We elect a POTUS, not a dictator!
In addition, The Donald has expressed to the world statements which reflect how little he understands about international relations. He recently praised North Korean dictator/king, Kim Jong-Un, for dispatching his political rivals. Then, he stated a few weeks later, that the United States should force China to get rid of Kim, even if that means assassinating him!
The Donald has often praised Russian leader/dictator, Vladimir Putin, and called him a friend. Later, the Donald implied that Putin is not to be trusted, and went on to criticize Obama for not standing up to Putin. The Donald is just all over the map, and in over his head, in the vital area of international relations.
I do not see The Donald as Hitler-like. I see him [sadly] as a joke. IMHO -- The only thing The Donald does as Hitler did, is the same thing virtually every Republican candidate for POTUS is doing this year. They are all appealing to fear, hatred, and prejudice within the American people. It may be a game to The Donald, but if a Republican wins, it will be mostly because he/she has appealed to the worst within us. Conservatives are just SO EMOTIONAL!!

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.