China. I'm interested in GZ's take

GZ I'm interested in your opinion on this.

http://nationalinterest.org/article/pitfalls-aging-china-7886

I've been saying this for a while now. The panic about the Chinese economy and military force does not hinder me because both are unrealistically unsustainable without a major demographic change.

Things that caught my attention:

"The significance of these numbers becomes apparent when we compare the proportion of working-age people with formal retirees. When China began its market reforms in 1979, there were about seven working-age persons to every retirement-age one. Today, the ratio is about 5.5 to 1. Current projections suggest that by 2035 there will be fewer than 2.5 working persons for every retiree" ....... "Even within the working population, in 2035 there will be 1.5 older workers (fifty to sixty-four years old) for each of their younger counterparts (fifteen to twenty-nine years old), which is the direct opposite of the current situation."

"First, China’s aging population is largely the result of a dramatic increase in average lifespan, which has increased from under sixty-five years in 1980 to the current seventy-five years. Moreover, fertility rates have declined, from 2.63 children per woman in 1980 to about 1.5 in 2011. This trend is unlikely to change."

These as well as the productivity and consumption gap as well as their further income disparity gap means for them to just be able to shrink at a reasoned rate would still require massive changes in their societal, economic, and eventually political landscape.

For these reasons is why I still believe China as a military or economic threat will not sustain.

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Well, what happens when China wants their trillion dollars in loans back? As the number of passengers riding on the boat increases, the number of people pulling on the oars decreases, too. Your scenario sounds real familiar to me.

Yeah what will happen if China wants their money back? Nothing. What are they going to do about it, beat us up?

That's a primary reason that I believe a American-Chinese War is unlikely. With an attack we'd then abstain to pay and would either wipe out our debt or pay it to Taiwan instead. Either way an enemy of the US would not receive money from the US.

MikeyA

they are cold blooded murderers without compunction.

Having said that, Chinese investment in Treasury notes is way down to virtually nothing.
Even these killers of millions know full well that American investments do not pay off as well as Brazilian, Cuban, Nicaraguan, Mexican, or Venezuelan investments do.
(Mostly in oil ,natural gas, and metals.)

SantaObbamma's EPA regulations, taxes, and uncertainty have saw fit to that.
Smart and savvy with their stolen dough the Chinese are.
They remind me of Dims, all the time.

China's business is business. War with China? Simply impossible under that paradigm. However, as petroleum depletion reaches critical levels, it's possible the rest of the world will strongly contend the American petroleum hegemony, and that may produce conflict. That's in the best interests of the ruling elite in the US and China, since they'd be staring a too many millions of men on their own soil, idled by the economic collapse that must accompany petroleum depletion. Better then to contrive a war or series of wars, and then kill off these idle men, and increase the oligarchic system to boot.

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