spam filters etc.


This is interesting - let's see if this link causes a problem this time...

Yup, it did.

Explanation: I tried to post a link of an article from cheaptalk (dot) org. I got the link with a simple search on google. Had been wondering if anybody else "out there" was thinking that Gingrich should go all the way to the convention and then throw his delegates to Santorum, and then Santorum choose Newt for VP.

Found an article with exactly that thinking and scenario, but just the link itself triggered the "spam filter", and therefore would not post the article. You can probably also get the article by typing into google or bing what I did. Something like: Should Gingrich throw his delegates to Santorum at the convention?

No votes yet

I could post on the topic, but could not include the actual link from Interesting, because I didn't see anything offensive in the article. I would say maybe farther down at the end of the article (which I hadn't finished reading), they used a bad word. But considering the words used at this site without "triggering the spam filter" - that can't be the problem.


What you suggest has a few problems.

The first is Gingrich's delegates are bound to him, at least through the first ballot. And some states bind their votes to candidates to as far as the fifth ballot, so for them to do that it depends upon their state party's rules.

The next is will Gingrich's delegation be seated? It's a RNC rule that to seat delegates you must win a plurality of 5 states. Gingrich has only done that in two states and his support is erroding fast.

Yet this all assumes that Romney doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot and thus a brokered convention. The most likeliest of scenarios was that Santorum could win enough to keep Romney from taking a plurality. Well looking at the calendar of states left we see a lot of Romney states and few Santorum/Gingrich states. In fact my math of most possible was Santorum winning IL, WI, TX, CA, LA, KY, AK. Santorum has already lost IL and is losing WI by 14 pts (in essentially a 2 man race).

So he already needs to win CA and TX which Santorum probably won't do without $$ and now since he lost IL he needs to "flip" a Romney state like OR, MT, MD, CT, DE, NY, UT and if he loses WI he'll have to flip two or more.

Additionally Romney only has to win 46% of the remaining delegates. He will win states like NY and UT with huge margins of victory so in all actuality he only needs to win about 35% of the remaining delegates. Santorum needs the rest of the field to take over 60% of the remaining delegates.

Assuming even if Santorum can block Romney from the first ballot, Santorum will have won only 400 or so delgates to Romney's 900-1100, and Romney will have gotten over 2 million more actual votes in primary's. Santorum will not get the nomination even with Gingrich giving him the support at the convention.

Face it, Romney is your nominee.


Case in point.

Santorum just won Louisiana. A Southern state with a lot of Evangelicals so he SHOULD win it.

He won 49-27, in a four way race that's a decisive victory. However he only gains 5 delegates.

That means even in a state where he wins and wins decisively he still cannot stop Romney in all the congressional districts, and because Romney secured over 25% of the vote he gets a direct allocation of delegates.

Santorum doesn't have the war chest, momentum, or hard core support to win this and barely has a chance to stop Romney from winning it.


Gingrich should "throw" Romney and Santorum off a cliff then jump off himself:)

Gingrich should "throw" Romney and Santorum off a cliff then jump off himself:)

so that you don't run into this in the future. Sorry about that. Thank you for your participation on this site.

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