... approaching Super Tuesday (& Ohio's chance to have a say)

Note: This "projection" link is dated 1/27/12, the day before the Michigan & Arizona primaries. And the author is a little off, but describes these as his predictions. [Michigan, for instance didn't award any delegates to Ron Paul.] It was the kind of chart I had been searching for, because it lists the Super Tuesday states, which many newscasts have neglected to do. And, although these are "projections" by the author, the chart still gives a kind of working list to compare with what actually happens in each state this coming Super Tuesday.

No votes yet

Snookie is pregnant


"DTOM" {1776} " We The People" {1791}

The only way Romney loses at this point is if he doesn't get some good wins on Super Tuesday.

From here on out each primary is a winner-take-all format and it's filled with Pacific and NE states, where Romney outpaces his competition. In fact he's got 20% of the delegates he needs to take the nomination and he's only needs to win about half the delegates left.

In retrospect it would take a Newt or Rick Santorum to virtually sweep after ST to take the nomination. It's possible but not probable. Even Ronald Reagan couldn't do that in '76.

The remaining three are hoping for a brokered convention. If that happens they wouldn't get the nomination and instead would try for the VP and cabinet posts by throwing their support behind unvetted/uncommitted candidates. Doubtful that would happen. Once Romney starts winning several of those states and putting even more distance between he and the rest of the pack his momentum will be hard to stop.

This means they need to stop with the negative campaigning after next week. Any candidate who continues should be ostracized by the rest of the party from there on out.


45% of the so called real conservatives voted for Romeny in AZ and only 28% in Mich whats up with that? I don't think Romeny can win many debates with Obama he seems to be very wimpy to me, Obama will overshadow Romney with his Charisma and probably with win with just the bass in his voice...
Whether it's the $700 billion TARP bailout, traditional marriage, abortion, the Second Amendment, or taxes and spending, Mitt Romney has been on both sides of virtually every issue important to conservative voters;How confident are you that this could be a close race for the presidency?

"DTOM" {1776} " We The People" {1791}

DTOM, I am just discussing it from an analytical perspective devoid of personal feelings.

Romney currently stands at 149 (most likely to go up since he has won a few unbinding caucuses for instance Wyoming's yesterday). There are about 456 up for grabs on Super Tuesday. If Romney wins 35% of them, not unlikely since his average total has been between 35-38% in most states and these are states he might not win but will be a close second. That means he stands to gain another 160. He will then stand at about 310.

Now 310 but then when you factor in the rest are winner take all.

He will most likey win: Guam, Amer-Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, N. Mariana, Puerto Rico, Maryland, DC, Conneticuit, Delaware, New York, R.I., Oregon, California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Montana and Utah. These constitute about 600 binding delegates and most likely he will win the large bulk of non-binding delegates.

That puts him at 910 delegates of 1,144 needed. Do I think he will find a way another 234 delegates? Yes. Especially as he starts racking up the above wins, which are easy for him, the rest of the nonbinding delegates will come to him and he'll use his money and organizational advantage to win a big state like Texas, North Carolina, or Arkansas.

If he puts all of his money into Texas alone he could win 155 delegates.

The only way I forsee a brokered convention or another take the win is if RS or NG drops out the other will benefit. I don't forsee that happening.


How confident are you that this could be a close race for the presidency? Romeny &Obama. If Romeny don't win can he limit the damage in the Senate?

"DTOM" {1776} " We The People" {1791}

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.